«Fog», «Split» and «Key»: RAS Scientists Presented Three Energy Development Scenarios for the Nearest 26 Years
Within the first working day of the XII Russian International Energy Forum, the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences presented its forecast for the development of the world and Russian energy sector up to 2050. This year, it was for the first time that the artificial intelligence has taken part in working on the forecast.
As was noted in his opening remarks by Aleksei Makarov, the Research Adviser of the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the RAS Academician, the institute has been developing scenario forecasts since 2010 and this year has used the artificial intelligence tools for the analysis for the first time. Another specific feature of the research was the need to take into account the factors of impact made by future world order scenarios on the energy markets, Aleksei Makarov.
The results of such large-scale work were provided by the team members of the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences: the research was presented by Vyacheslav Kulagin, Head of the Department for Research of the World and Russian Energy Complex of the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Anna Galkina and Dmitry Grushevenko, senior research fellows of the institute.
Three scenarios of the world energy development are considered as the most probable by researchers. These scenarios were named «Fog», «Split» and «Key», but one can hardly suppose now which of them will be implemented.
«Fog» implies restriction of the world trade, application of the practice of trade barriers and sanctions, reserved nature of the world capital cross-flow and limited technology transfer opportunities. In the «Fog», the countries are predominantly based on their own economic interests, and the globalization issues go into the background.
The situation of «Split» implies that there appear two poles in the world between which material restrictions for the commodity flows are formed, but there is active trade inside these blocks. However, some of the countries remain outside the poles and is still trading with everyone.
The «Key» scenario is the most optimistic one for the global energy market: the world finds a mechanism that enables to resolve contradictions and reach compromise solutions on the key issues of further development, the trade barrier practice is dead and buried, all countries act in concert to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals and solve global tasks together.
According to the research data, the main trends of the global energy development are similar in all three scenarios. The world economic growth rates will not exceed 1.9–2.5%, that is the global economy will be 1.5 times as slow as compared with the period of 1990–2021. Population growth, which is an important factor for the energy development forecasting, will also slow down in all regions, except for Africa, where there will be by 25% more people by 2050 than now, as well as Asian developing countries where reproduction of the population number is expected.
Global need for the electric power will still depend on the demand for the manufactured goods, and by 2050, industrial energy consumption will amount to 19–28%. Just like today, high-temperature industry (heavy engineering, metallurgy) will be provided with energy generated from coal and gas, and the low-temperature industry will transfer to the electric energy. By 2050, the world share of domestic consumption will be 37–41%, and, the higher is the average income indicators the higher will be the need for electric energy. However, as noted by the researchers, there is still some income threshold upon reach whereof the demand for electric energy stops growing, and the issues of energy saving start prevailing.
The structure of the world energy balance will also change. If electric energy consumption grows by 40-90% by 2050 («Fog» and «Key» scenarios), 62% to 66% of the additional generation will be provided with the renewable energy sources (RES) by 2035 already, and by 2050 the RES share in the production structure may reach 100%. Electric energy generation using solar power will grow 5–9 times, of wind energy – 3–7 times. However, this will lead to the 3-7-fold increase of the prime cost thereof, so each state will have to form its generation structure and energy balance at its own discretion.
Authors of the research also expect an active growth of interest to the nuclear energy: in Russia, the NPP generation will grow by 7.1%, in France – by 9.7%, in the USA – by 22.2%, and in China – by 28.9%. The overwhelming majority of countries will increase consumption and generation of nuclear energy, NPP will appear in places where there were no such plants up to now, for example, in Turkey, Poland, Egypt, Vietnam.
However, this does not mean that such traditional primary energy sources as gas, oil and coal will become obsolete. «During the entire period of up to 2050 the world energy engineering will resemble a four-wheel car: oil, gas, coal, renewable and zero-carbon sources. Each of such «wheels» will be of importance, but, unlike previous periods, a place on the guiding axle will be occupied by gas and RES», Anna Galkina explained.
The world consumer structure will also change: the role of the developed countries will be reduced by 2050, and the electric energy will primarily be exported by North America and Australia and imported by Europe, Japan and South Korea. The BRICS block will become the most significant player on the world market by 2050, that will account for up to half of energy generation and consumption.
The speakers have separately focused on the Russian energy development prospects. According to their forecasts, by 2050, the country’s electric power generation will approximately by 15–36%, up to 1.3–1.5 trillion kWh. Natural gas will remain the basis of the Russian electric power supply and will provide for 54–56% of the primary energy demand, and the share of non-carbon sources (NPP, hydro-energy, RES) will grow from 10% in 2021 to 11–14% in 2050. Meanwhile, in the upcoming period, the role of coal as the raw stuff for generating electric power will be reduced in all scenarios, the «Fog» and «Key» options also imply reduction in oil consumption for the power generation.
In general, the Russian Fuel and Energy Complex has favourable prospects of the development both on the domestic and the export markets. The study points out that for such prospects to come true the key principles of the domestic and foreign policy in the energy industry development are required to be revised. This includes implementation of a range of measures necessary to activate national developments of new technologies and software for the key segments of Fuel and Energy Complex and related industries; creating a competitive domestic market of electric energy and complete waiver of cross-subsidies; encouraging energy saving and energy efficiency; modernizing sales, production and logistic facilities of the Fuel and Energy Complex, including with the use of the smart and digital systems, automation, artificial intelligence on the basis of home-grown technologies. In order to expand the electric energy export volumes, the scientists of the Energy Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences advise to build up the infrastructure for delivery to the regions having growing demand for the electricity, in particular, to the developing countries of Asia, as well as to develop a «huge market of equipment, services and staff training».
«These segments’ financial turnovers often highly competitive with the indicators of the world trade of energy resources. Russia with its competencies in the Fuel and Energy Complex could fill a significant niche in this segment», Vyacheslav Kulagin summarized.